The enduring view of real estate as a stable investment is anticipated to contribute to its continued appeal in 2025, with opportunities in global luxury property markets persisting despite ongoing concerns about tariff impacts and
Economic factors vary according to the level of wealth of the client. “For UHNWIs, property purchases and sales are purely a lifestyle choice,” Dockray says. “At a lower price point, such as the US$5 million range, we tend to see more activity when the stock market rises. Buyers below that point are more likely to pay attention to interest rates.”
However, many entrepreneurs drive real estate transactions, so inflation or other economic factors that impact their business could influence their real estate decisions. Successful transactions often hinge on clients sharing information about their banking relationships early in the process. Understanding whether financial institutions can authorize and facilitate loans in specific markets—specifically in cross-border scenarios—can help prevent complications.
“Agents need to know which lenders can work with wealthy buyers and what they can offer, which changes often,” Dockray says. When a buyer needs to finance their purchase, it’s best to use local lenders whenever possible. The worst situation is when someone has an out-of-state personal banker, who says they can execute in our market but at the last minute they can’t. It can derail a deal to ask a seller to wait while your buyer scrambles to rearrange their financing.”
The factors that influence global luxury property buyers
Economist Hepp also believes that foreign investment in U.S. real estate could be influenced in part by geopolitical circumstances. “While some foreign buyers will continue to be attracted to investing in U.S. real estate because the country is considered a stable economy, others may be less likely to invest here because of changes in immigration policies,” she says. “It will probably balance out in the coming years.”
In terms of cross-border luxury transactions, there has been an increase in activity from U.S. buyers looking to purchase properties in Europe, a trend that was also seen during the pandemic, White says. “Market forecasts from our affiliate leaders remain positive for the coming months. This optimism is particularly strong in markets such as Italy, Portugal, Dubai, the U.K., France and Spain, as well as in countries offering fiscal tax benefits and residency programs, such as Malta and Switzerland.”
Cross-border transactions were also driven by the strong performance of the U.S. dollar at the start of the year. Outside of Europe, U.S. luxury property buyers are seeking homes in locations such as Japan and Mexico due to currency advantages. “We are seeing a growing luxury market in Mexico that is attracting more and more buyers from the U.S.,” White says. “San Miguel continues to grow substantially, as do other mostly coastal markets, such as Los Cabos, Playa del Carmen and Puerto Vallarta.”
“ MARKET FORECASTS FROM OUR AFFILIATE LEADERS REMAIN POSITIVE FOR THE COMING MONTHS
”
Philip A. White Jr., president and CEO, Sotheby’s International Realty
Trends in Europe and the U.K.
The primary motivations for Americans buying overseas appear to be economics, politics, lifestyle, potential investment opportunities and the favorable exchange rate, White says. “Demand from U.S. buyers was robust in 2024, particularly in markets that aligned with their motivations. Portugal continues to be a compelling destination, with U.S. buyers becoming the top foreign nationality in 2024. In Italy, the U.S. buyer share has significantly increased since 2023, fueled by the strong dollar and a new lump-sum tax regime. Our affiliate in Paris, France, Propriétés Parisiennes Sotheby’s International Realty, also noted that 70% of its foreign buyers were from the U.S. in 2024.”
Demand for prime properties in central Paris remains strong, says Delphine Gibert Avitan, director, Propriétés Parisiennes Sotheby’s International Realty. “High-profile sales have continued, particularly in the most sought-after arrondissements, but buyers are showing increased selectivity, favoring properties that offer a unique architectural or historical character. There’s a continued preference for properties with outdoor spaces and terraces, along with high demand for meticulously renovated turnkey residences. There’s also an increasing focus on energy-efficient and historically preserved properties due to evolving regulations and buyer preferences.”
In April 2025, Alexander V. G. Kraft, chairman and CEO, Sotheby’s International Realty France and Monaco, secured the Maybourne Residences in Saint-Germain-des-Prés, one of the most prestigious areas of Paris. The residences are exclusively listed by Propriétés Parisiennes Sotheby’s International Realty and are the first private homes in Paris that will benefit from hotel services. They are also the most expensive, with a €60,000 per square meter (US$5,750 per square foot) listing price. “These developments offer Americans not just properties but lifestyle experiences in prestigious locations,” White says.
Residents of the Maybourne, in Saint-Germain-des-Prés, Paris, have access to the luxury spa at the adjoining hotel.
Sotheby’s International Realty France and Monaco
The Paris residences represent a global trend among luxury property buyers who are looking for hotel-like amenities for their private homes.
Lower interest rates in Europe may encourage some HNWIs to re-enter the market there, Gibert Avitan adds, although cash transactions dominate the ultra-luxury sector. “Geopolitical uncertainty tends to reinforce the appeal of stable luxury markets such as Paris, London and major European capitals.”
Sustained interest in Paris among American buyers, particularly those motivated by lifestyle and long-term investment potential, is matched by the appeal of London. “Buyers in London in 2024 did very well because there was lots of supply and the market was unsettled before our general election,” says Becky Fatemi, executive partner, United Kingdom Sotheby’s International Realty. “There’s more clarity globally now that the U.S. and U.K. elections are behind us, and there are still good opportunities in the U.K. as we’ve experienced a significant exodus of foreign buyers.”
Some wealthy people from Europe, the Middle East and Africa have left the U.K. since reforms in 2024 eliminated long-standing tax benefits for residents whose permanent home is outside the U.K. In addition, in November 2024 the new center-left U.K. government imposed a 2% surcharge on home purchases made by non-residents and an extra 5% on buyers who own more than one residential property.
In 2024, Americans made up 20% of foreign buyers in the U.K, according to Fatemi. The market segment between £2 million and £10 million (US$2.6 million to US$13 million) remains active, with foreign buyers predominantly purchasing properties as a pied-à-terre or investment assets for family members. In addition, interest rates are lower in the U.K. Robust bonuses for people in the financial sector also led to a boost in purchases at the end of 2024 and in early 2025.
“One reason Americans were buying in the U.K. is the strength of the dollar compared to the pound,” Fatemi says. “Even though they might have to pay stamp duty of as much as 19%, the strength of the dollar and lower interest rates offset the expense.” She says prices are the highest they have ever been, so buyers from Dubai and Abu Dhabi are also looking to London for investment opportunities.
“ THERE’S MORE CLARITY GLOBALLY NOW THAT THE U.S. AND U.K. ELECTIONS ARE BEHIND US
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Becky Fatemi, executive partner, United Kingdom Sotheby’s International Realty
Trends in Australia and New Zealand
Australia’s luxury real estate market also showed robust performance in 2024. “Sydney Sotheby’s International Realty achieved a record year in 2024,” White says. “Our brand also has plans for continued expansion in Australia in the coming months.”
Sydney remains one of the world’s most expensive luxury property markets. Other capital markets in Melbourne, Perth and Brisbane represent attractive alternatives for luxury property buyers seeking value and lifestyle appeal.
Melbourne Sotheby’s International Realty set a record for the South Yarra neighborhood with the sale of a contemporary home for just under AU$26 million (US$16.5 million), the highest recorded price since 2018 and a new record per square meter at AU$41,000 (US$26,127). “I believe we’ll continue to see this trend for strong demand for luxury real estate by the ultra-rich and finite supply in highly sought-after suburbs of Melbourne, which offer world-class amenities,” says Antoinette Nido, managing director – Stonington, Melbourne Sotheby’s International Realty.
In Australia’s major cities, demand is being driven by UHNWIs and an increasing appetite for prestige property investments. Market forecasts from data analytics firms Cotality and Domain suggest a 5.3% annual property value growth rate for 2025 compared to 2024, along with sustained interest in landmark residences and branded developments. While foreign purchases of existing homes are on hold for two years from April 1, 2025 the same restrictions do not apply to new developments, which represent ownership and investment opportunities for overseas purchasers.
“In New Zealand, a significant market development emerged in March 2025 with updates to the Active Investor Plus Visa Scheme,” White says. “This policy change now permits foreigners to own homes based on eligibility related to investment thresholds and physical presence requirements. New Zealand Sotheby’s International Realty was involved in the top three national sales in 2024 and six of the top ten, suggesting strong underlying market momentum.”
Trends in Hong Kong and Singapore
Property markets in China struggled in 2024, and measures have been taken to deliver stability. “The government has eliminated excessive stamp duties and introduced programs to attract wealthy individuals, family offices and qualified professionals, encouraging a new wave of potential buyers from the Chinese mainland, Southeast Asia and the Middle East,” White says.
Singapore’s luxury housing market was noticeably slower until the summer of 2024, when interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve encouraged economic confidence among homebuyers and investors, says Sueann Lye, global real estate advisor, List Sotheby’s International Realty, Singapore.
“There was a noticeable flow of wealth into the Singapore market in 2024, indicated by higher sales in the second half of the year,” Lye says. “On a per-square-foot basis, the average price of so-called ‘good-class bungalows’ rose 4% year-over-year from 2023 to 2024. In 2025, we expect the good-class bungalow market to strengthen and prices to rise marginally due to the limited supply.” A “good-class bungalow” is a planning designation that indicates a single-family home located in one of 39 residential areas and on a lot of at least 1,400 square meters (15,070 square feet). They are typically the most luxurious and costly homes in Singapore.
However, luxury apartments did not perform as well, with total sales down 30% in 2024 compared to 2023, Lye says. She anticipates the current performance of apartments to remain the same in the second half of 2025. “This could be attributed to the lack of new luxury projects for sale in 2024 and to the hike in additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD). Since April 2023, foreign buyers of residential properties have to pay 60% of the sales price, which is a deterrent. In addition, ABSD rates were raised for citizens and permanent residents buying second properties from 20% to 30%.” As a result, luxury properties in Singapore are increasingly being purchased by citizens and permanent residents as their primary residence.
“We have noticed an increasing number of buyers from the U.S., Norway and Switzerland over the past two years,” Lye says. “Under their respective free trade agreements, nationals and/or permanent residents from these three countries who buy residential properties in Singapore, as well as those from Iceland and Liechtenstein, will be accorded the same tax treatment as Singaporean citizens,” Lye says.
More broadly in Asia, the Sotheby’s International Realty brand opened an office in the Philippines in March 2025 to widen its reach in the region. “The luxury residential real estate sector in the Philippines has seen steady growth fueled by increased demand from affluent buyers and investors,” White says. “As the financial center of the country and a key hub for multinational corporations, the city of Makati is the prime location for high-end residences offering premium amenities and security.”
Trends in the Middle East
Despite ongoing global economic and geopolitical challenges, the luxury real estate sector in the Middle East remains robust, says Zhanna Yerkozhanova, general manager, Qatar Sotheby’s International Realty. “HNWIs are actively purchasing exclusive properties in the top locations. This year, foreign investment is anticipated to rise due to favorable exchange rates and government initiatives attracting affluent buyers.”
Approximately 6,700 millionaires are estimated to have migrated to homes in the UAE in 2024, with Dubai recognized as a luxury property magnet. Similar to other high-end markets, Dubai continues to struggle to keep up with demand. An array of luxury mansions and penthouses that range in price from US$60 million to more than US$120 million are under construction or recently completed in Dubai for buyers from Europe, Asia and the Americas, according to a February 2025 Bloomberg report.
Branded residences in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—which includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—are anticipated to stay strong as buyers seek not just luxury but integrated experiential lifestyles. “Qatar is uniquely positioned as a leading Middle Eastern economy, benefiting from a strong banking system, no personal income tax and the possibility for investors to obtain permanent residency,” Yerkozhanova says. “Qatar’s strategic vision and infrastructure investments position it for continued interest and potential growth in the luxury sector, along with its position as a gateway between Europe and Asia.”
Oman, known as a tourism destination for its beautiful landscapes, also has a stable economy bolstered by oil reserves and progressive government policies, which has led to its emergence as a hub for international business, capital transfer and immigration. “Our exclusive projects—the Residences at the St. Regis Marsa Arabia Island, the Pearl—Qatar and the Residences at the St. Regis Al Mouj Muscat Resort—consistently attract international buyers,” Yerkozhanova says.
A nine-bedroom mansion located in Emerald Hills with views of the Dubai skyline.
Dubai Sotheby’s International Realty
Market resilience
The luxury property market has demonstrated remarkable strength even in the face of broader economic challenges, as the Sotheby’s International Realty brand demonstrated in 2024, White says. “Luxury real estate has consistently led the market and outperformed the industry. Sales are taking place at a steady pace, and we anticipate this momentum to continue. Affluent buyers remain active, and the demand for high-end properties remains strong.”
In 2025, White anticipates sales in the global luxury property market will continue to show growth. “Active housing inventory is rising in most markets on a year-over-year basis, but some still remain tight,” he says. According to NAR data released at the end of May 2025, housing inventory in the U.S. climbed nearly 21% from a year ago. “Overall, we are optimistic about the future of the global luxury property market. The combination of strong demand, impressive sales growth and the resilience of the luxury segment positions it well for continued success in the coming months.”
As luxury property buyers and sellers contemplate their next moves for 2025 and beyond, they are likely to focus attention on markets that consistently demonstrate resilience in any economic climate.
Steady Course
Luxury real estate presents resilient opportunities amid market shifts, experts say
On-again, off-again tariffs, stock market volatility, stubborn inflation and currency fluctuations are likely to continue to affect global real estate markets in the coming months, but they could still present opportunities for some buyers.
“Despite elevated interest rates and slower overall sales activity, the high-end real estate segment continues to show resilience,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist, First American Financial Corp., a provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. “Wealthy homebuyers are often motivated by lifestyle, portfolio strategy or long-term bets on a specific market, not just short-term cost considerations. And, while headwinds such as trade tensions or financial market volatility may shift the pace or location of demand, they rarely erase it.”
The upper end of the housing market has consistently performed well in the past few years, attributed in part to strong stock market performance, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist, National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
While noting that market dynamics might temporarily slow activity, Yun remains optimistic about luxury real estate’s long-term trajectory. “We’re starting to see a little hesitancy at the upper end, mostly because of the uncertainty about where the stock market will be in a month or next year,” Yun says. “But in the big picture, there’s sizable pent-up demand for trade-up buyers. In addition, even with a stock market correction, there’s plenty of household wealth being transferred to the next generation that will add to the demand for luxury housing.”
This estate in Bradbury, California, was meticulously designed following Feng Shui principles and includes a 100ft pool and garage for 20 cars.
Pacific Sotheby’s International Realty
Tariffs, investors and luxury housing
“Residential construction costs, already more than 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels, could be further strained by sustained tariffs,” Kushi says. Buyer preferences may shift toward turnkey homes that avoid the added cost and delay of new construction or major renovations, she says.
“If tariffs continue to increase construction costs, that will likely jeopardize profits on the already slim margins in the building industry,” says Joel Berner, senior economist, Realtor.com®. “It’s likely more builders will pivot to higher-end homes where the profit margins are a little better, which would increase the inventory of luxury homes.”
“Among the top 10% of wealthiest households, real estate represents 18.7% of their total investment portfolio, down from 19.9% two years ago,” according to a Realtor.com® April 2025 report, Berner says. That percentage may be higher after the most recent stock market correction, he adds.
Stock market volatility can have a dual effect on the luxury housing market, Kushi says. “On one hand, sharp swings in equities can prompt some high-net-worth individuals to delay big purchases due to uncertainty,” she says. “On the other, real estate—especially in prime markets—might be seen as a safer, more tangible store of value.”
The US$1-million-plus segment has continued to grow in 2025, now comprising nearly 13% of all recent existing-home sales, according to April 2025 data from NAR, Kushi points out. “This suggests many affluent buyers still see real estate as a safe place to park money, offering both investment potential and the value of a place to live,” she adds.
“When the stock market experiences severe swings, wealthier households in the U.S., and globally, look for a more tangible, secure asset,” Yun says. “If the stock market continues to be volatile, people are more likely to invest in real estate as a hedge against uncertainty,” he says.
Slowdown risk, interest rates and the luxury market
Berner anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (the Fed) to hold interest rates steady at least until several months of better inflation numbers are reported. Tariffs are expected to drive prices higher, which works against lowering interest rates, he says.
However, slowdown risks have risen due to evolving trade policies, Berner continues. “[It] isn’t necessarily bad for the housing market, with the exception of the 2008-2010 housing-led downturn. Periods of economic cooldowns usually generate lower interest rates, which has a positive overall impact on the housing market, even the upper end.”
Currency fluctuations and cross-border purchases
Inflation in May remained steady, according to a June 2025 report in The New York Times, and most economists anticipated that the Fed will continue to hold interest rates at 4.25%–4.5% for the rest of 2025. Meanwhile, trade wars led to a weakening dollar—down 9.07% for the year as of June 18, 2025, according to The Wall Street Journal.
In mid-May, officials in China and the U.S. agreed to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, according to a May 2025 report by AP News. As part of the agreement, the U.S. dropped its tariffs on China to 30% from the previous 145%, while China dropped its tariffs on U.S. products from 125% to 10%.
Overseas investor purchases in the U.S. slowed when the dollar was strengthening, which made it more costly to buy in the U.S., Yun says. However, a weaker dollar could make the U.S. more attractive to real estate investors, Berner says.
“When a local currency weakens, international buyers with stronger currencies may find better value, effectively boosting their purchasing power,” Kushi says. “But it’s not just about pricing—currency shifts often reflect broader economic signals.”
“The President’s ‘Gold Card’ proposed visa program, which offers a path to citizenship for people who invest US$5 million, could potentially boost high-end demand for U.S. real estate,” Yun says.
Continued volatility on many fronts is anticipated in 2025, but the luxury housing market is likely to be a source of continued opportunity.